Whatever the reality of the talks now supposedly under way with Iran, Mr. Trump is likely committed mentally to nothing except managing markets and (I’m still guessing) not mounting a ground invasion to secure the Strait of Hormuz. And yet a deal still seems the likeliest outcome. If you’re a surviving member of the Iranian regime, your current lifestyle—hiding, fretting about your electronic footprint, worrying about your own people ratting you out to Israeli intelligence—is getting old fast.